English Essay On Election 2013 In Pakistan

Further information: List of members of the 14th National Assembly of Pakistan



All 342 seats in the National Assembly
172 seats needed for a majority
Turnout55.02%[1]( 11.01pp)

General Elections result.[3]


General elections were held in Pakistan on 11 May 2013 to elect the members of the 14th National Assembly and to the four provincial assemblies of Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Elections were held in all four provinces, Islamabad's federal capital territory and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The remaining two territories of Pakistan, the Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, were ineligible to vote due to their disputed status. Allegations on systematic vote rigging, favouritism, and ethnicity trends on political parties marred with controversy regarding the nationwide elections; this eventually led to anti-government march that called for electoral reforms in 2014.

The fifth largest democracy[4] and second largest Muslim democracy after Indonesia in the world,[5] the elections are noted for the first civilian transfer of power following the successful completion of a five-year term by a democratically elected government.[6] Election took place in 272 constituencies, whilst a further 70 seats were awarded to parties having been reserved for women and minority groups; none of the parties achieved the 172 seats needed for an overall majority.[7] The Pakistan Muslim League (N) won the largest number of votes and seats but still fell six seats short; this resulted in a hung parliament where no party was able to command a majority in the National Assembly.[8] Initial results saw the hung parliament for a second consecutive general election—the first being the prior general election in 2008. Potential for a hung parliament was widely considered and predicted as both countries' politicians were better prepared for the constitutional process that would follow such a result, in contrast to 2008.[9][10]

Speculations for the potential hung parliament were dismissed when the independent candidates joined the PML (N) which allowed that party to form a simple-majority government by bringing on-board nineteen independent candidates, thirteen more than the minimum required to form a government. This swing ultimately resulted in Nawaz Sharif becoming the newPrime Minister of Pakistan.[11]

Prior to the elections, the centre-left PPP formed an alliance with PML(Q), while on the conservative side, the PML (N) allied with PML(F) and Baloch parties. Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan led the right wing PTI, and the Jamaat-e-Islami also participated in the elections. PPP and PML(Q) saw their vote share plummet, with the former being essentially being wiped out in Punjab. [12][13][14][15]

Background[edit]

Main article: Long March (Pakistan)

By Constitution's stipulation on Time of conducting elections in the country, the [general] election are to be held at an interval of five years or whenever parliament is dissolved by the President.[16] Upon dissolution of the National Assembly (a lower house of the Parliament), the elections are to be held within a period of sixty days immediately under a caretaker set–up.[17] The previous elections were held in February 2008 and its term naturally expired on February 2013.

In mid-January 2013, Sufi cleric and politician Dr. Tahir-ul-Qadri led a Long March from Lahore to Islamabad, which is over 350 km, demanding the electoral reforms, the quick dissolution of the National Assembly and a precise date for the election. The march attracted about ~50,000 participants from across Pakistan and ended peacefully. However, this appeared to have little impact on the PPP government who continued on as per normal, and were seemingly following their plan as to when to announce elections. The anti-corruption activism led by Imran Khan gathered momentum and political interests.[18]

In the run up to the elections, a US Congressional report provided a brief overview of the PPP government between 2008 and 2013. The annual report included the input of 16 US intelligence agencies, including the CIA, which pointed the policies and performances of the PPP government during their five-year term. The report wanted that "Economically, trouble looms. Pakistan, with its small tax base, poor system of tax collection, and reliance on foreign aid, faces no real prospects for sustainable economic growth. The government has been unwilling to address economic problems that continue to constrain economic growth. The PPP government has made no real effort to persuade its disparate coalition members to accept much-needed monetary policy and tax reforms, because members are simply focused on retaining their seats in the upcoming elections."[19]

Process[edit]

Main article: Elections in Pakistan

With assistance from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)announced the printing of computerised electoral rolls, the first of its kind database which resulted in the elimination of 35 million bogus voters off the list.[20]

Schedule[edit]

  • 1 August 2012: The Election Commission of Pakistan announces 2012 general elections would be held on the basis of same old constituencies.[21]
  • December 2012: The Supreme Court of Pakistan orders delimitation of constituencies and door-to-door verification of voters with the help of Pakistan Army in Karachi.[citation needed]
  • 17 January 2013: The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) starts door-to-door verification of voters list.[22]
  • 3 February 2013: President Asif Ali Zardari announced the date for the general elections in the country, between 8 and 14 March 2013.[23]
  • 31 March 2013: Last date to submit the candidates' papers.

Caretaker government[edit]

Following the recommendations in Article 224 (Clauses 1A-1B) of the constitution of Pakistan, there arose a need to form a caretaker government to operate in the interim period between the normal dissolution of parliament, facilitating the election process, until a new government was formed after the election results were known.[24] To this effect, prime minister Pervez Ashraf wrote a letter to the opposition leaderNisar Ali Khan, requesting him to propose names of persons for appointment as the caretaker prime minister.

The Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JI), Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) all agreed on the name of retired senior justiceNasir Aslam Zahid as the caretaker PM until the elections take place.[25] After a failure to achieve a consensus between the PPP government and the opposition, the matter was forwarded to a parliamentary committee of four members from both the government and the opposition.[26]

Under the provision of Article 224-A (Clause 3) of the constitution,[27] the Election Commission announced the appointment of retired Federal Shariat Courtchief justiceMir Hazar Khan Khoso on 24 March 2013 in a press conference held by chief election commissionerFakhruddin G Ebrahim.[28][29] Consequently, Khoso was sworn into office as the caretaker prime minister on 25 March 2013,[30] while his caretaker federal cabinet was sworn into office on 2 April 2013.[31]

Registered voters[edit]

Following is the final list of registered voters in each district of Pakistan who are eligible to cast their vote.[32]

  • The total number of registered voters for the election were 76,194,802.
  • The province of Punjab had the highest number of registered voters.
  • In cities, five districts of Karachi which form the city of Karachi had a total of 7,171,237 registered voters; more than total voters of the province of Balochistan and more than any other city or district in Pakistan.
  • In Balochistan, due to sparse population, some National Assembly seats were shared by two or three districts.
ProvinceDistrictNo. of VotersSeat No
BalochistanAwaran56,387NA-270
BalochistanBarkhan55,327NA-263
BalochistanChagai66,836NA-260
BalochistanDera Bugti63,953NA-265
BalochistanGwadar93,650NA-272
BalochistanHarnai33,140NA-265
BalochistanJaffarabad247,316NA-266
BalochistanJhal Magsi44,533NA-267
BalochistanKachhi (Bolan)103,108NA-267
BalochistanKalat104,445NA-268
BalochistanKech173,972NA-272
BalochistanKharan45,176NA-271
BalochistanKhuzdar165,593NA-269
BalochistanKilla Abdullah184,832NA-262
BalochistanKilla Saifullah88,424NA-264
BalochistanKohlu38,624NA-265
BalochistanLasbela182,697NA-270
BalochistanLoralai107,028NA-263
BalochistanMastung80,118NA-268
BalochistanMusakhel51,864NA-263
BalochistanNasirabad162,349NA-266
BalochistanNushki61,878NA-260
BalochistanPanjgur74,751NA-271
BalochistanPishin196,859NA-261
BalochistanQuetta559,939NA-259
BalochistanSherani31,837NA-264
BalochistanSibi75,832NA-265
BalochistanWashuk38,171NA-271
BalochistanZhob96,278NA-264
BalochistanZiarat51,742NA-261
BALOCHISTANTOTAL3,336,659NA-259 to NA-272
FATABajaur Agency353,554NA-43, NA-44
FATAF.R. Bannu9,482NA-47
FATAF.R. D. I. Khan22,269NA-47
FATAF.R. Kohat41,070NA-47
FATAF.R. Lakki Marwat9,939NA-47
FATAF.R. Peshawar23,371NA-47
FATAF.R. Tank15,581NA-47
FATAKhyber Agency336,763NA-45, NA-46
FATAKurram Agency262,021NA-37, NA-38
FATAMohmand Agency177,244NA-36
FATANorth Waziristan Agency160,666NA-40
FATAOrakzai Agency125,687NA-39
FATASouth Waziristan Agency200,666NA-41, NA-42
FATATOTAL1,738,313NA-36 to NA-47
Federal AreaIslamabad625,964NA-48, NA-49
Khyber PakhtunkhwaAbbottabad675,188NA-17, NA-18
Khyber PakhtunkhwaBannu444,059NA-26
Khyber PakhtunkhwaBatagram204,980NA-22
Khyber PakhtunkhwaBuner360,019NA-28
Khyber PakhtunkhwaCharsadda704,680NA-7, NA-8
Khyber PakhtunkhwaChitral206,909NA-32
Khyber PakhtunkhwaD. I. Khan606,959NA-24
Khyber PakhtunkhwaHangu214,703NA-16
Khyber PakhtunkhwaHaripur531,866NA-19
Khyber PakhtunkhwaKarak315,087NA-15
Khyber PakhtunkhwaKohat409,372NA-14
Khyber PakhtunkhwaKohistan127,015NA-23
Khyber PakhtunkhwaLakki Marwat330,274NA-27
Khyber PakhtunkhwaLower Dir541,565NA-34
Khyber PakhtunkhwaMalakand311,172NA-35
Khyber PakhtunkhwaMansehra742,674NA-20
Khyber PakhtunkhwaMardan987,122NA-9, NA-10, NA-11
Khyber PakhtunkhwaNowshera619,914NA-5, NA-6
Khyber PakhtunkhwaPeshawar1,393,144NA-1, NA-2, NA-3, NA-4
Khyber PakhtunkhwaShangla296,722NA-31
Khyber PakhtunkhwaSwabi714,454NA-12, NA-13
Khyber PakhtunkhwaSwat981,823NA-29, NA-30
Khyber PakhtunkhwaTank150,585NA-25
Khyber PakhtunkhwaTor Ghar64,867NA-21
Khyber PakhtunkhwaUpper Dir331,004NA-33
KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWATOTAL12,266,157NA-1 to NA-35
PunjabAttock1,022,180NA-57, NA-58, NA-59
PunjabBahawalnagar1,264,077NA-188, NA-189, NA-190, NA-191
PunjabBahawalpur1,522,061NA-183, NA-184, NA-185, NA-186, NA-187
PunjabBhakkar711,837NA-73, NA-74
PunjabChakwal929,747NA-60, NA-61
PunjabChiniot602,290NA-86, NA-87, NA-88
PunjabDera Ghazi Khan1,052,720NA-171, NA-172, NA-173
PunjabFaisalabad3,622,748NA-75, NA-76, NA-77, NA-78, NA-79,
NA-80, NA-81, NA-82, NA-83, NA-84, NA-85
PunjabGujranwala2,273,141NA-95, NA-96, NA-97, NA-98, NA-99, NA-100, NA-101
PunjabGujrat1,581,402NA-104, NA-105, NA-106, NA-107
PunjabHafizabad543,646NA-102, NA-103
PunjabJhang1,145,415NA-89, NA-90, NA-91
PunjabJhelum783,571NA-62, NA-63
PunjabKasur1,463,575NA-138, NA-139, NA-140, NA-141, NA-142
PunjabKhanewal1,301,926NA-156, NA-157, NA-158, NA-159
PunjabKhushab680,471NA-69, NA-70
PunjabLahore4,410,095NA-118, NA-119, NA-120, NA-121, NA-122, NA-123, NA-124,
NA-125, NA-126, NA-127, NA-128, NA-129, NA-130
PunjabLayyah736,509NA-181, NA-182
PunjabLodhran727,177NA-154, NA-155
PunjabMandi Bahauddin815,154NA-108, NA-109
PunjabMianwali757,191NA-71, NA-72
PunjabMultan2,110,177NA-148, NA-149, NA-150, NA-151, NA-152, NA-153
PunjabMuzaffargarh1,681,436NA-176, NA-177, NA-178, NA-179, NA-180
PunjabNankana Sahib623,625NA-135, NA-136, NA-137
PunjabNarowal792,379NA-115, NA-116, NA-117
PunjabOkara1,396,811NA-143, NA-144, NA-145, NA-146, NA-147
PunjabPakpattan823,478NA-164, NA-165, NA-166
PunjabRahim Yar Khan1,904,615NA-192, NA-193, NA-194, NA-195, NA-196, NA-197
PunjabRajanpur724,286NA-174, NA-175
PunjabRawalpindi2,645,608NA-50, NA-51, NA-52, NA-53, NA-54, NA-55, NA-56
PunjabSahiwal1,190,424NA-160, NA-161, NA-162, NA-163
PunjabSargodha1,861,804NA-64, NA-65, NA-66, NA-67, NA-68
PunjabSheikhupura1,341,341NA-131, NA-132, NA-133, NA-134
PunjabSialkot1,841,347NA-110, NA-111, NA-112, NA-113, NA-114
PunjabToba Tek Singh1,089,508NA-92, NA-93, NA-94
PunjabVehari1,285,562NA-167, NA-168, NA-169, NA-170
PUNJABTOTAL49,259,334NA-50 to NA-197
SindhBadin639,314NA-224, NA-225
SindhDadu609,609NA-231, NA-232, NA-233
SindhGhotki568,065NA-200, NA-201
SindhHyderabad923,140NA-218, NA-219, NA-220, NA-221
SindhJacobabad394,557NA-208, NA-209, NA-210
SindhJamshoro369,424NA-231
SindhKambar-Shahdadkot508,062NA-206
SindhKarachi Central1,632,487NA-244, NA-245, NA-246, NA-247
SindhKarachi East2,093,898NA-253, NA-254, NA-255, NA-256
SindhKarachi South1,131,376NA-248, NA-249, NA-250, NA-251, NA-252
SindhKarachi West1,493,055NA-239, NA-240, NA-241, NA-242, NA-243
SindhKarachi Malir820,421NA-257, NA-258
SindhKashmore353,616NA-210
SindhKhairpur838,502NA-215, NA-216, NA-217
SindhLarkana585,519NA-204, NA-205, NA-207
SindhMatiari300,486NA-223
SindhMirpur Khas585,262NA-226, NA-227
SindhNaushahro Feroze600,090NA-211, NA-212
SindhSanghar793,397NA-234, NA-235, NA-236
SindhShaheed Benazirabad668,193NA-213, NA-214
SindhShikarpur488,878NA-202, NA-203
SindhSukkur527,635NA-198, NA-199
SindhTando Allahyar286,956NA-223
SindhTando Muhammad Khan230,554NA-222
SindhTharparkar471,831NA-229, NA-230
SindhThatta663,543NA-237, NA-238
SindhUmerkot385,505NA-228
SINDHTOTAL18,963,375NA-198 to NA-258
PAKISTANTOTAL86,194,802

Campaign[edit]

With the announcement of the care-taker government, campaigning from parties—including the PPP, PML (N) and PTI—started as early as 27 March, six weeks ahead of the 11 May election date.[33] Observers noted that different parties stressed on different interest groups – PTI on the disaffected youth, PML-N on the centre-right constituency, PPP on liberal classes and rural Sindhis, and MQM on Karachi-based muhajirs. Power shortages were another issue in the election campaign.[34]

Pakistan Peoples Party[edit]

Main articles: New Left, Socialism in Pakistan, and Centre-left

Founded in 1968, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is a centre-left and left oriented party, with a mainstream agenda of promoting socialist economics and social justice. The PPP announced that Bilawal Zardari would be its candidate for the next Prime Minister, though Zardari was still too young to become Prime Minister. Article 62 of the Constitution clearly states that the Prime Minister must be a person who is "not less than twenty-five years of age and is enrolled as a voter in any electoral roll for election to the seat".[35] Zardari was not 25 until September 2013.[36] On 5 May 2013, it was revealed that Zardari had left Pakistan for Dubai and would not be present at all on election day. He unexpectedly left the country and would not be addressing any party rallies or meetings. The PPP also announced that he would not return until after the elections are over.[37]

The PPP's campaign was led by Amin Fahim, accompanied by notable leftist activists such as Taj Haider, Aitzaz Ahsan, Raza Rabbani, and Yousaf Gillani.[38] The PPP ran two different political programmes during the election campaign: "Massawat" (lit. Egalitarianism) and "People's Employment Programme" for the youth voters, and also its vintage "Roti Kapda Aur Makaan (lit. Bread, Cloth, House) slogan.[39] The PPP highlighted its implementation of the nationalization and welfare programs that were launched in 2008.[39] In addition, the PPP greatly supported awareness of industrial and labor rights, importance of higher education in the country, promotion of social economics, a foreign policy of building relations with Russia and Eastern Europe, counterterrorism legislation, efforts to reduce gas shortages in the country.[40][41] Generally, the PPP's main focused was on gathering its support from Sindh.[2] In a critical editorial in the English-language newspaper, The Nation, the PPP neglected to highlight the prevailing issue of energy conservation to reduce the repeated cycle of loadshedding in the country.[41]

Soon after the PM’s last address on 16 March 2013, TV carried live broadcasts from the streets of Lahore and Karachi, where the public mood was one of anger over corruption, the bad economy, and faulty public services. The reaction of political analysts was mixed, with many holding massive corruption and nepotism as the reasons for the government's perceived failures. Even in his televised address, while trumpeting the occasion, PM Raja P Ashraf quietly conceded that his government had also been a source of disappointment for many. Public resentment had been fed by an endless list of problems: enduring power shortages [up to 18 hours a day at the peak of summer]; the failure to curb terrorist attacks, protect religious minorities and formulate a coherent anti-terrorism strategy; slow and weak response to the floods; sluggish economic growth, a bloated public sector, cresting inflation; and tales of legendary corruption, carving out private fortunes from a treasury to which they scandalously paid little in tax. Many Pakistanis, particularly among the urban middle classes, were looking to the next elections with relief.[42]

In Karachi and other parts of the country, the PPP also maintained a New Left alliance with the ANP, MQM, and Communist Party against the conservative parties in Sindh.[43]

Pakistan Muslim League[edit]

Main articles: New Right, Centre-right, and Conservatism in Pakistan

The Pakistan Muslim League, a centre-right conservative party, began its campaign on terminating the energy conservation crises, and also the issues involving the national security, economic development, higher education, immigration, and taxation reforms.[44] The campaign was led by Nawaz Sharif, who emphasis the success of the privatisation to alleviate youth employment and small businesses, introducing policies for the environmental preservation, building motorways, counterterrorism legislation, economic liberalisation, improvement of the public transportation in all over the country, and then the decision of authorising the nuclear-testing programme in 1998.[45] Over several days, Sharif delivered speeches and visited in all over the country for the support, promising that: "Just like the nuclear blasts, conducted in our last tenure, made us an atomic power, an economic explosion in our next term will turn the country into a commercial powerhouse."[46][47] Furthermore, the PML(N) indicated to bring a balance on civil-military relations with the military, through opening a source of political channel to resolve issues.[48]

The PML(N) ran a political programme which was termed as "Ilmi aur Maashi Dhamaka" (lit. Education and Economic boom) at the public circles, and gained a lot of public support from all over the Punjab, and the financial support from the business community in Karachi, which proved to be a crucial factor in PML(N)'s efforts to gain majority in the elections.[49] After delivering a victory speech on May 2013, Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister for a third term on 5 June 2013 after receiving vote of confidence in the Parliament. He received 244 votes in the 342-seat parliament.[50] The PML(N) was generally supported by PML(F) against the PPP in Sindh and BNP in Balochistan, also against the PPP.[51] Terming it as "EEE programme" for Education, Energy, Economy, the PML(N) popularise its slogan "Stronger Economy–Strong Pakistan", which was released in 2012.[52]

Addressing to the national via news channels representatives, the PML(N) debated that aside from balancing the energy conservation, ending stagflation as well inflation, and resolving the issues relating to counter-terrorism and national security, its quick economic recovery programmes is also aimed to increase the expenditure on education, health, food security, and "non-pension" social security from the annual GDP by 2018, as part of the policy measurement programmes.[53]

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf[edit]

Main article: Third Way

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is a conservative and welfarist political party a mainstream political programme of supporting the "Third Way" and "welfarism".[54]

In the midst of election campaign, the PTI's chairman, Imran Khan, called for an inter-party elections for the leadership of the PTI. Many renowned individuals were defeated in the intra-party elections, such as Arif Alvi who was replaced by Pervez Khattak as secretary-general and Ejaz Chaudhary who defeated Ahsan Rasheed. Imran informed the media that no-one from his party will be eligible to hold the post of the party chairman for more than two terms. Motives behind this inter-party elections were to will ultimately finish off the "dynasty-type, family limited companies politics" from the country, as Imran Khan maintained.[55]

The PTI rigorously campaigned on social awareness, social reforms, telecommunication, and the expansion of the e-government in all over the country.[18] Other main points of PTI's campaign was to end the role of country in the War on Terrorism and to regulate private schools' fees structure with the quality of education they provide.[18] The PTI targeted the left-wing policies of PPP and the corruption that took place in state-owned enterprises after underwent through the nationalisation programme, started in 2008 by the PPP.[18]

During a campaign rally in Lahore, Imran fell 14 ft as he was stepping off an improvised forklift. He was seen to be bleeding and unconscious with a gash on his head. He was then taken to Shaukat Khanum Memorial Hospital

Results of the 2013 Pakistani General Election

  Pakistan Muslim League (N)

  Pakistan Peoples Party

  Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

  Muttahida Qaumi Movement

  Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam

  Pakistan Muslim League (F)

  Pakhtun-khwa Milli Awami Party

  Jamaat-e-Islami

  National Peoples Party

  Pakistan Muslim League (Q)

  Qaumi Watan Party

  All Pakistan Muslim League

  National Party (Pakistan)

  Balochistan National Party

  Awami Jamhuri Ittehad Pakistan

  Awami Muslim League

  Pakistan Muslim League (Z)

  Awami National Party

  Independents

  Repoll ordered

  Postponed/terminated/withheld

Pakistanis have shed blood for democracy. The country’s most recent election in May 2013 was its bloodiest. It was held during the height of the Taliban insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of Pakistanis. The Pakistan Taliban, known as the Tehrik-i-Taliban, made the election an explicit target, calling democracy un-Islamic, “an infidel system.” During the campaign, the Pakistan Taliban targeted candidates and political party supporters at rallies, killing more than 130 people. At first, the targets were secular or left-leaning parties—the Awami National Party (ANP) from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the Karachi-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), and the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The week before the election, terrorists struck the Islamist Jamiat-ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) (JUI-F) as well, killing at least thirty people in two attacks. The Taliban told people to stay away from the polls, warning of more violence on election day.

The election was ultimately a success. The targeted parties curtailed some of their activities, but they did not stop campaigning. Rallies were held in a carnival atmosphere, especially in the urban areas, and mobilized many who had been unmotivated to vote in previous elections. There was a palpable energy in the air. Pakistanis were ready for a turnaround after years of insecurity and bloodshed, an energy crisis, an economy that seemed in free fall, and continued misgovernance. Citizens had become terribly disappointed with the governing PPP. According to a national Pew poll in 2013, 83 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of the party’s leader, President Asif Ali Zardari (widower of the assassinated Benazir Bhutto). Yet Pakistanis placed their hopes for change firmly in elected government. A Pew poll in Pakistan in 2012 found that it was important to 88 percent of respondents that people choose their leaders in free elections.

On election day, turnout was 55 percent, despite threats of terrorist violence. This was significantly higher than voter turnout in Pakistan’s previous six elections from 1988 to 2008, when it ranged between 35 percent and 45 percent. Election-day attacks did occur: at least thirty-eight people were killed in Karachi and Balochistan, but the violence was contained relative to the Taliban’s threats. Veteran politician Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won an impressive mandate, capturing 188 out of 342 seats in parliament (a tally that includes nineteen independent candidates who switched to the PML-N post-election). Former star cricketer Imran Khan steered his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) into national prominence alongside the PPP and PML-N. The PPP was routed, especially in Punjab, winning only forty-six seats; and the PTI emerged as a solid third party, winning thirty-three seats.

In the three years since then, trends have been less sanguine. The election that brought Nawaz back as prime minister for the third time had been marred by anecdotal evidence of electoral rigging. Despite the finding of international election observers that the election was by and large fair, in the fall of 2014 Khan’s PTI launched a protest against the government, calling for Sharif to resign (with slogans of “Go, Nawaz, Go!”) and for fresh elections. Khan called off the protest only after the December 2014 terrorist attack in Peshawar that killed more than 130 schoolchildren demanded national unity in the face of extremism.

Sharif Versus Sharif
Khan’s challenge significantly weakened Nawaz Sharif’s hold on power. After the Peshawar attack, the need to improve security was vital, and the civilians were (rightfully) not deemed up for the task. This gave the military an opportunity to appropriate total control of security policy and set up military courts for terrorism cases.

Sharif suffered a further blow in 2016 when he was implicated in corrupt activities by the so-called Panama Papers, some 11.5 million documents from a Panamanian legal firm leaked to journalists revealing how the world’s rich and influential use offshore entities to avoid paying taxes and hide ill-gotten money. In Sharif’s case, the papers showed that his children own offshore companies and assets that he had not declared as part of the family’s wealth. He countered that these companies and assets were technically not in his name and that the money was legal, but has been unable to offer a credible explanation on the source of the money. Sharif said he would form an independent inquiry commission to satisfy his detractors, but proposed a vague mandate for the body, which opposition parties rejected. The squabbling over the terms of reference for the commission continues.

While Nawaz Sharif’s approval ratings have taken a hit, he remains popular. As of June 2016, 54 percent of respondents in a national Gallup Pakistan poll said they were satisfied with his performance. This is lower than the 73 percent approval rating on his performance in his first two years in power found in a poll run by the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) in June 2015, but is still high.

But the army is also very popular: the June 2015 PILDAT poll found a 75 percent approval rating for the army, and a 69 percent approval rating for Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif. Throughout his troubles, Nawaz Sharif has had the misfortune of being widely and unfavorably compared with his more popular namesake. This must hurt, given Sharif’s personal grievances with the army. During his second term as prime minister in 1999, his army chief, Pervez Musharraf, sacked him and took power in a coup, forcing Sharif to go into exile for years.

The army is basking in the success of its Zarb-e-Azb operation against the Pakistan Taliban that began in June 2014 and is considered responsible for reducing terrorist attacks in the past two years. The army’s operations in Karachi, led by the Rangers, have also reduced violence in that city, although the army has also meddled deeply in the city’s politics.

The army has an aggressive public relations machine, headed by an exceptionally media-savvy general, Asim Bajwa. Its publicity blitz now includes television dramas, music videos, and documentaries. No one benefits more from it all than Raheel Sharif. Posters with his face are plastered all over Pakistan—even as rickshaw art—and he is constantly in the news. The hashtag #ThankYouRaheelSharif became ubiquitous on social media last year.

Nawaz Sharif, on the other hand, still makes old-school speeches from behind his desk, beginning them with “my dear countrymen,” always somewhat whiny and listless. He does not wield a compelling narrative. The public perceives him as weak and ineffectual, while Raheel Sharif exudes competence and efficiency. Nawaz and other politicians are considered as out to enrich themselves personally while the army is considered to work only for Pakistan’s interests. This perception is partly warranted (the army delivers in spite of its corruption; the politicians do not deliver because of theirs), but it also follows from the army’s successful command of the national narrative.

As the Panama Papers scandal unfolded, Raheel Sharif weighed in. He dismissed six military officers, including two generals, for corruption—making his army look better than the politicians through a relatively superficial move. He also publically called for a crackdown on corruption, saying that “enduring peace and stability [will not be established] unless the menace of corruption is uprooted.” In a country where the civilians and the military are constantly compared, harping on the worst weakness of the civilians—corruption—was especially effective.

The media issues harsh criticism of the government while largely sparing the army (the army makes clear that it does not tolerate criticism). According to a Gallup analysis of eight prominent television talk shows in May 2016, governance was the main topic discussed, and the majority of the guests were politicians. The media obsesses over political corruption, while sidestepping the army’s hegemony and appropriation of national resources.

It is a particular feature of Pakistan’s democracy that the army chief, a figure who inhabits the background in most democracies, dominates the country’s imagination more than its popularly elected leader. This dominance is no accident, as the story of Pakistan’s democracy cannot be told without reference to the army. Pakistan’s birth as a Muslim nation amid the partition of India in 1947 led to a sense of deep insecurity vis-à-vis its powerful neighbor. This has led to the disproportionate strength of the institution that defends the country and enables it to exercise dominance in politics, and ironically undermine the very democracy for which Pakistan was created. The army has ruled Pakistan for more than half of the seven decades of the country’s existence. During crises in democratically elected governments, the army is viewed as the ready alternative, a savior for the beleaguered country. Accompanying each army takeover was a heady feeling that things would be fixed; in reality, army rule left the country worse off every time. The pendulum of public opinion would swing toward democracy again, only to be followed by disappointment; the democracy-army cycle would repeat itself.

A popular observation during bad times for elected governments is that Pakistan is not suited for democracy—an argument related to the notion that Islam is incompatible with democracy. This is linked to a Pakistani insularity. Pakistanis consider the country’s problems as particular to it, as not comparable with other countries. As a result of Pakistan’s split from and great enmity with India (and the fact that Pakistan defines itself in opposition to India), Pakistanis have not learned from the nation most similar to their own country. Not surprisingly, they have not looked to the West either. Pakistanis prefer non-democratic success stories—the so-called Asian Tigers, for example—for their models. As a result, they don’t grasp the ups and downs of democracy, that its benefits are found in the long term, that it is sometimes a slog. The (military) savior in the shadows confuses people. If Pakistanis had no military alternative to civilian rule, they might think differently about their politics.

Despite the army’s prominence and popularity in Pakistani life, President Pervez Musharraf’s troubled rule from 2001–08 seems to have dealt a severe blow to any return to direct military rule. In 2007, as Musharraf’s fortunes were sinking after he sacked the chief justice of the Supreme Court and engaged in a violent military operation against a militant madrassa in central Islamabad, a Pew poll found that 77 percent of respondents thought it important that honest elections be held regularly with a choice of at least two political parties.

That shift in public opinion in favor of democracy has persisted despite crises in the post-Musharraf PPP and PML-N terms in office and the army’s current popularity. In the June 2016 Gallup poll, 84 percent of respondents said they preferred democracy to dictatorship. In the PILDAT poll the prior year, 64 percent of respondents said that democratically elected governments constitute the best system for Pakistan, and 66 percent of respondents looked favorably on the quality of democracy in the country. Only 20 percent of the respondents said that another military takeover would be beneficial for Pakistan—while not an insignificant figure, a clear minority.

In the post-Musharraf period, the major political parties are united in opposition to another army takeover. The PML-N and PPP essentially function as a “friendly opposition” to each other, protecting each other over corruption allegations and the like (although the PPP has been more aggressive this year with the Panama Papers inquiry). This is a useful strategy against the military’s ambitions—a lesson they seem to have learned from the repercussions of their hostile relationship in the 1990s—but it undermines accountability. Only Imran Khan’s PTI functions as a true opposition to the government, but instead of opposing it on substance or policy in parliament, Khan leads populist rallies and calls for the prime minister’s resignation. While Khan generates significant support (he had a 49 percent favorability rating in the PILDAT poll in 2015) and has loyal followers, the majority of Pakistanis do not seem to agree with his tactics. In the June 2016 Gallup poll, 68 percent of respondents said that it was wrong for Imran Khan to demand Nawaz Sharif’s resignation over the Panama Papers scandal. Pakistanis seem to have reconciled themselves to a corrupt democracy, because that seems to be the only kind they can get.

The army knows that popular and political opinion does not look favorably on a military takeover. It sent a clear signal during Imran Khan’s protracted protest in the fall of 2014 that it would not move against Sharif’s government, though it will gladly appropriate all the power it can, as it did with security matters following the Peshawar massacre. But the army still promotes its image as a savior, actively and through surrogates. This July, posters popped up all over the country, pleading Khuda ke liay (for God’s sake) for Raheel Sharif to take power. The army denied any involvement in the stunt.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s democracy will not be complete unless the army stops meddling in political matters and stops projecting itself as Pakistan’s savior. In order for faith in democracy to persist, citizens’ belief in the fairness of elections will need to increase. Most elections in Pakistan have been marred by allegations of some kind of rigging. A sizable minority continues to think that the 2013 election was rigged. In the 2015 PILDAT poll, this number was 30 percent (lower than 37 percent in 2014). On the other hand, 59 percent of the respondents in 2015 thought the election was “free and fair.”

The army also needs to cede its control of security and foreign policy. This may be almost impossible—it goes to great lengths to maintain this control. To be fair, it is also unclear that the civilians are competent enough to assume this control. This month, a front page article by a respected journalist in Dawn, Pakistan’s premier English daily, recounted an unprecedented showdown between Nawaz Sharif and the head of the country’s spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), in which the prime minister asked the ISI to end the protection it gives to Kashmiri and Afghan jihadists. The prime minister’s office—which likely “leaked” the story—issued three vociferous denials of the story, and after a meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and General Sharif, immediately placed a travel ban on the journalist and announced an inquiry into the matter. The military’s Inter-Services Public Relations said that the leaks that led to the story were “a threat to national security.” It seems two matters are at stake: the projection of a shift in the civil-military power equation over security matters, and the reference to an internal acknowledgement of the ISI’s cover for jihadists. The reaction from the military has been intense—although most of it is behind the scenes and can be inferred from the actions of the prime minister’s office. It underscores how difficult a shift of power in the military-civilian equation on security is going to be.

Serving the Citizens?
Elected governments through the 1990s were consumed with paranoia. For them, the best outcome (never achieved) was survival through the completion of a full term. Politicians make poor decisions when they are in survival mode. They focus on the short-term, become circumscribed by crises, and are reactive rather than proactive. While Pakistan’s two main parties, the PPP and PML-N, ostensibly differ in their platforms—the PPP is left leaning and favors the rural poor, the PML-N is right leaning and pro-industry—there was little difference in how they ended up governing in the 1990s. They did not invest in improving governance, or in dealing with Pakistan’s myriad development challenges by broadening the tax base, removing barriers to public services like education and health, and improving the rule of law.

The paranoia and survival mode have been evident in the PPP’s recent term and the PML-N’s current term even as the army’s overt threat to democracy has receded. The biggest achievement of Asif Ali Zardari’s presidency between 2008 and 2013 was simply that he completed his term of office. At different points in his three years in office Nawaz Sharif has shown a resolve to adjust to the changed political climate. He has leaned less to the right than ever before, a positive development for Pakistan, but has suffered from setbacks. He has made overtures to India, only to have them voided after the January 2016 Pathankot attack on an Indian air force base that was blamed on Pakistan-based terrorists. He has taken bold moves like hanging Mumtaz Qadri, the killer of provincial governor Salmaan Taseer, a man supported by Pakistan’s Islamists—only to have Qadri sympathizers camp out in front of parliament for days and wreck the capital’s infrastructure in angry protests. Most recently, he seems to have tried to begin the process of wresting back control of security policy from the army, only to be put in his place.

Sharif has spent too much of his time putting out fires, and his policies have felt interrupted and selective. He invests in big, urban infrastructure projects—easily visible to voters—but has not invested in systemic governance reform, or in improving the lives of the rural poor. He has also shown an inability to ideologically counter extremism.

It is unclear whether Sharif will take such steps; with the PPP significantly weakened in Punjab and the PTI experiencing limits to its political ambitions, the PML-N may be able to win the next election even without doing so. But it would be unfortunate if Sharif does not make use of his political advantage. If democracy is to prevail in Pakistan, democratic regimes will have to start delivering for the average Pakistani.

Juncture of Opportunity
In large part due to the repeated interventions of the military, Pakistan’s democracy remains underdeveloped. That condition dents its effectiveness and perpetuates the cycle that makes military rule attractive at times. Pakistan’s political development needs time and protection from interruptions, whether from the army or from extremists.

By some measures, Pakistan’s democracy can be described as vibrant. A total of 333 parties are registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan. In each general election, 272 constituencies hold direct elections to the National Assembly; the other seventy seats are reserved for women and minorities. For each of the direct election constituencies, parties can field one candidate each, and candidates can run independently as well. Reserved seats are then allocated proportionately to parties that have won more than 5 percent of the vote. The party with the majority of seats in parliament forms the government; if it does not have an outright majority, it needs to form a coalition with smaller parties.

In reality, Pakistani democracy operates with many constraints. Just six out of the 333 parties hold more than ten seats in parliament (out of a total of 342), and only eighteen parties hold any seats at all. Pakistan has four provinces, Punjab, Sindh, KPK, and Balochistan, with 183, seventy-five, forty-three, and seventeen seats in parliament, respectively (the tribal areas and the federal capital hold twelve and two seats, respectively). As the numbers indicate, any party that can dominate Punjab can hold sway over national politics. This means that voters are only left with a couple of choices of political parties that are nationally viable.

Then there is the dynasty problem. The three main parties—the PML-N, the PPP, and the PTI—are all personality- and family-driven. The PML-N is associated completely with Nawaz Sharif (it is no coincidence that Nawaz is an element of the party’s name); the PPP with the Bhutto family; and the PTI with Imran Khan. There is a lack of internal democracy. It remains to be seen whether Imran Khan will succeed in transitioning the PTI into a party that is not completely tied to him.

There are barriers to entry at the candidate level—contesting elections requires wealth. In rural areas, large landowners typically win elections; in return, they use their political power to provide patronage to their constituents. It is not clear that many of them have national-level policy interests—it is patronage that helps them win votes, not their voting record in the National Assembly. The practice of horse-trading, in which politicians switch parties to ally with the party with the greater chance of winning the next election, is widespread in Pakistan—evidence of a candidate-party policy disconnect. By and large, party trumps candidate identity, at least once the candidates pass a threshold level of prominence. Thus it seems that politicians’ policy convictions are malleable. This constituency-federal level disconnect is harmful to the country’s interests. It also means party platforms are not well developed or implemented.

Institutions remain underdeveloped as well. Parliament is rowdy, and accomplishes little. It is a part-time job—if that—for most parliamentarians. Nawaz Sharif’s government has undermined it. Instead of using parliament to discuss issues of national concern—such as peace talks with the Taliban—the prime minister has called “all parties” conferences, forums with no legal basis, to discuss such topics.

Democratic governments in Pakistan tend to rely on a cadre of loyalist advisors instead of professionals, limiting their own effectiveness. The PPP and PML-N are both guilty of this. Nawaz Sharif has been especially loath to appoint advisors beyond his tight inner circle (he has appointed many of the same men this time around that he did in his previous two terms in the 1990s); he even holds the foreign and defense portfolios himself.

It is also unclear that voters understand the responsibilities of parliamentarians versus bureaucrats, or the differences in the roles of national-level parliamentarians relative to provincial and local elected officials. The decentralization of many matters from the federal to the provincial level via the eighteenth amendment to the constitution in 2010 only confuses citizens further. For voters to hold the politicians accountable, they require good information. But accountability is difficult in an environment where the division of responsibilities is murky (sometimes even to the politicians themselves).

Pakistan’s democracy is at a juncture of import. Its citizens have shown faith in it, despite continued corruption and poor governance, and in defiance of long-held narratives that undermined democracy in the country. The army has also indicated that it will not seize control of the government, although it continues to meddle in politics, and commands power over internal and external security matters.

All this gives Pakistan’s democrats space—not complete, but enough—to ensure progress in political development, governance, and delivery of public services. How Pakistan’s politicians choose to behave now will determine whether democracy persists, or whether there is another slide toward disillusionment that emboldens the army to take over once again. The democrats need to let go of paranoia, to stop governing in survival mode, and invest in Pakistan’s long-term development. They eventually need to reassume civilian control over security matters, command a compelling narrative for Pakistan’s future, and ideologically counter extremism—though this will take time and enormous effort. They must hold back on self-indulgence. The critical question facing Pakistan today is whether Nawaz Sharif’s ruling PML-N will seize the opportunity before it.

Madiha Afzal is an assistant professor at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Her recent publications include “Education and Attitudes in Pakistan: Understanding Perceptions of Terrorism,” published by the United States Institute of Peace. She has contributed to the Express Tribune, Foreign Policy, Newsweek, Washington Post, and Friday Times. She was named to Lo Spazio della Politica’s list of Top 100 Global Thinkers of 2013. On Twitter: @MadihaAfzal.

Tags: Nawaz SharifPakistanRaheel Sharif

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